Arvin, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

378
FXUS66 KHNX 021753
AFDHNX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hanford CA
953 AM PST Thu Jan 2 2025

.UPDATE...

Update on dissipating fog for the 18Z Aviation forecast.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...

1. There is a 20 to 40 percent for dense fog in the San Joaquin
Valley tomorrow morning.

2. Dry conditions will prevail until Friday morning with
temperatures a few degrees above average.

3. There is a chance for light precipitation from Friday
afternoon through Saturday morning.

4. Dry conditions and seasonable temperatures will prevail from
Sunday through the middle of next week.


&&

.DISCUSSION...

Expect one more morning with Tule Fog and stratus in the SJ
Valley today with upper-level ridging continuing today. After
tomorrow night, another low pressure system approaches. This
system provides a chance of precipitation for Friday afternoon
and evening. Amounts will generally be relatively light, based
on latest model data. Latest data show anywhere from 10 to 50
percent chance of at least 3 inches of snow in the Sierra
Nevada, with the best chances towards Yosemite National Park and
around 15 to 40 percent chance of 0.10 inch or more of rain.
However, the favored areas will be Fresno County northward, as
the system weakens as it moves south over our forecast area. For
locations south of Fresno County the probability for this
amount of rain sharply diminishes to 10 percent or lower. The
potential for gusty winds also exists for locations over the
Sierra Nevada crest during the day on Friday as well as the
leeward side of the mountains in eastern Kern County for Friday
evening into Saturday. However, will hold off on wind highlights
for these areas until we get a little closer.

A ridge of high pressure rebuilds over the EPAC and West Coast
beginning Sunday. This will bring a dry and calm pattern to our
region for the next several days, or until at least next
Thursday. However, fog and stratus returns to the Central
Valley, given this is early January. For now, we anticipate
mainly seasonably cool temperatures, although highs rise to
above average by early next week. Areas above the stratus cloud
deck will likely be sunny with warmer than average temperatures
through the daytime, such as in the Sierra Nevada foothills.
It is possible that high temperatures warm to above average at
times in the SJ Valley later next week, especially if the fog
clears early enough in the day. However, if fog is persistent,
then below average daytime highs will occur instead.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z Update.

IFR/MVFR should move into high MVFR/IFR AFT 20Z for the stubborn
areas of the San Joaquin Valley. Otherwise VFR already at north
and south ends of the region. This evening and tonight AFT 08Z
probability of LIFR/IFR/MVFR are below 30 percent. For now will
go with MVFR/IFR however confidence is fairly low end.

Elsewhere VFR conditions will prevail thru 12Z Fri.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
ISSUED:  01/01/2025 14:22
EXPIRES: 01/02/2025 23:59
On Thursday January 2 2025,  Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups in
Fresno, Kern, and Madera Counties.  Fireplace/Wood Stove Burning
Status is: No Burning For All in Fresno, Kern, and Madera
Counties. No Burning Unless Registered in Kings, Merced, and
Tulare Counties. Burning Discouraged in Kern (Greater Frazier Park
Area) and Sequoia National Park and Forest.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 103 AM PST Thu Jan 2 2025/

KEY MESSAGES...

1. There is a 30 to 60 percent for dense fog in the San Joaquin
Valley through this morning.

2. Dry conditions will prevail until Friday morning with
temperatures a few degrees above average.

3. There is a chance for light precipitation from Friday
afternoon through Saturday morning.

4. Dry conditions and seasonable temperatures will prevail from
Sunday through the middle of next week.

DISCUSSION...
Expect one more morning with Tule Fog and stratus in the SJ
Valley today with upper-level ridging continuing today. After
tomorrow night, another low pressure system approaches. This
system provides a chance of precipitation for Friday afternoon
and evening. Amounts will generally be relatively light, based
on latest model data. Latest data show anywhere from 10 to 50
percent chance of at least 3 inches of snow in the Sierra
Nevada, with the best chances towards Yosemite National Park and
around 15 to 40 percent chance of 0.10 inch or more of rain.
However, the favored areas will be Fresno County northward, as
the system weakens as it moves south over our forecast area. For
locations south of Fresno County the probability for this
amount of rain sharply diminishes to 10 percent or lower. The
potential for gusty winds also exists for locations over the
Sierra Nevada crest during the day on Friday as well as the
leeward side of the mountains in eastern Kern County for Friday
evening into Saturday. However, will hold off on wind highlights
for these areas until we get a little closer.

A ridge of high pressure rebuilds over the EPAC and West Coast
beginning Sunday. This will bring a dry and calm pattern to our
region for the next several days, or until at least next
Thursday. However, fog and stratus returns to the Central
Valley, given this is early January. For now, we anticipate
mainly seasonably cool temperatures, although highs rise to
above average by early next week. Areas above the stratus cloud
deck will likely be sunny with warmer than average temperatures
through the daytime, such as in the Sierra Nevada foothills.
It is possible that high temperatures warm to above average at
times in the SJ Valley later next week, especially if the fog
clears early enough in the day. However, if fog is persistent,
then below average daytime highs will occur instead.

AVIATION...
12Z Update.

In the San Joaquin Valley, areas of IFR developing in mist and
low clouds with local LIFR in fog after 12Z Thu, mainly north
of Kern County. MVFR in haze starting 18Z Thu, improving to
mainly VFR across the region by 00Z Fri.

Elsewhere VFR conditions will prevail thru 12Z Fri.

AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
On Thursday January 2 2025, Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups in
Fresno, Kern, and Madera Counties. Fireplace/Wood Stove Burning
Status is: No Burning For All in Fresno, Kern, and Madera
Counties. No Burning Unless Registered in Kings, Merced, and
Tulare Counties. Burning Discouraged in Kern (Greater Frazier
Park Area) and Sequoia National Park and Forest.

CERTAINTY...

The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.

Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit
www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information
and/or to provide feedback.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is medium.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.

Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit
www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information
and/or to provide feedback.

&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

aviation update....Proton

weather.gov/hanford